|
JBS Swift Purchases Cargill Pork
JBS斯威夫特收购嘉吉猪肉
The big news last week was the purchase of Cargill Pork by JBS Swift. JBS Swift’s move continues its relentless growth in the US meat protein sector. JBS, a Brazilian based behemoth lead by the Bautista family has in the last few years purchased Swift (Swine – Cattle), Pilgrim Pride (Chicken), and now Cargill Pork (subject to regulatory approval). It appears to us JBS with these purchases plus others is moving to a target of Global leader in beef, chicken, and pork.
嘉吉猪肉(Cargill Pork)被JBS斯威夫特(JBS Swift)收购是上周的大新闻。JBS斯威夫特的行动继续了其美国肉类蛋白质部门的疯狂增长。JBS这家由包蒂斯塔(Bautista)家族所领导的巴西巨兽在过去几年中收购了斯威夫特(猪和牛)、Pilgrim Pride(鸡)，现在又收购了嘉吉猪肉(有待监管部门批准)。在我们看来，拥有这些并购及其它的JBS现在的目标是成为牛肉、 鸡肉和猪肉的全球领导者。
The US now has ownership groups JBS Swift (Brazil), Smithfield Foods (Chinese), and Tyson Foods (USA). These very large organisations focused on meat protein have different ownership origin and different cultures. We expect a continual battle for market share, retail space, brand support, and creation. This is and will be a Big Boy battle.
美国现在有JBS斯威夫特(巴西)、史密斯菲尔德食品(中国)和泰森食品(美国)等管理集团。这些专注于肉类蛋白质的庞大组织有着不同股东来源和不同文化。我们预计这将会对市场份额、 零售空间、 品牌支持和创作进行持续争夺。这是一场男人的战斗。
JBS Swift has negotiated the purchase of Cargill Pork for $1.45 billion. This includes two swine plants (Ottumwa, Iowa, and Beardstown, Illinois), which last year processed 93 million hogs. Numerous feed mills and hog production system, which we believe, is about 135,000 sows.
JBS 斯威夫特洽谈以14.5亿美元的价格收购嘉吉猪肉。这包括去年加工9300万头猪的2个猪肉加工厂(爱荷华州奥塔姆瓦和伊利诺斯州比尔兹敦)。众多的饲料厂和养猪生产体系，我们认为会有大约13.5万头母猪。
With the purchase, JBS Swift will have a combined daily capacity to process hogs of approximately 82,000. Smithfield Foods will remain the largest packer at about 110,000 per day capacity, with Tyson and JBS Swift approximately the same size.
通过本次收购，JBS斯威夫特将会具备每天加工共约8.2万头生猪的生产能力。史密斯菲尔德食品公司仍然是最大的屠宰公司，每天可以加工约11万头生猪。泰森食品和JBS斯威夫特的规模相当。
JBS Swift with the purchase of Cargill’s hog operations now vaults into being one of the major players in US hog production.
JBS斯威夫特通过收购嘉吉的养猪部门，现在已经一跃成为美国养猪业的主要角色之一。
Cargill’s sale of the pork division we suspect is part of a move to focus on two areas. They are global leaders in Grain Trade and Feed Nutrition. Cargill is the largest privately owned corporation in the world, and has had the means to stay in the pork business as long as it wanted. The pork division selling for $1.45 billion is a lot of money in our world, but in Cargill with, we suspect 10’s of billions in assets, it was not a major price. Cargill obviously didn’t see Cargill Pork as part of a long-term strategy and took the prudent course to move on. Cargill sold from strength.
我们猜测嘉吉出售猪肉部门是出于为了专注于2个领域。他们是粮食贸易与饲料营养的全球领导者。嘉吉公司是世界上最大的私营公司，只要愿意就有能力一直从事猪肉生意。对我们来说，猪肉部门销售的14.5亿美元是很大的一笔钱，但这对嘉吉来说并不算很多钱。我们怀疑嘉吉有上百亿资产。嘉吉公司显然没有把嘉吉猪肉作为长期战略的一部分并采取审慎的做法来继续前进。
For hog producers, the JBS Swift purchase of Cargill is good. JBS Swift is signalling by paying $1.45 billion that they believe in US pork and the swine production industry. It’s a big commitment and faith in the future.
对养猪生产者而言，JBS斯威夫特收购嘉吉是好事。JBS斯威夫特通过支付14.5亿美元传递出他们对美国猪肉和养猪业的信心。这是对将来的巨大承诺和信心。
China
中国
Chinese Ministry of Agriculture – April
中国农业部 — — 4 月
Million Head 2013 2014 2015 Difference
Breeding Herd 50.46 46.86 39.8 -10.6 million
Market Inventory 444.37 428.52 387 -57 million
百万头 2013年 2014年 2015年 差异
种猪群 5046万 4686万 3980万 -1060万
生猪存栏 44437万 42852万 38700万 -5700万
The calamity that has affected the Chinese hog industry the last two years plus is clearly illustrated in the above chart. 2 years April – April 10.6 million fewer sows, 57 million less market hog inventory.
上面的表格清楚地说明了过去2年多时间内影响中国生猪业的这场灾难。2年间的四月至四月母猪存栏减少了1060万头，商品猪存栏减少了5700万头。
We all know farmers only liquidate if they’re losing money. We believe over the last few years, China marketed 1.2 billion market hogs at a loss of $30 per head (it could be more), the industry would have lost $36 billion US. A number hard to fathom but that’s what the arithmetic comes to. With a decrease of 57 million hogs in inventory in April, that means to us 100 million fewer market hogs per year or 2 million less a week. For context, the US market hog inventory on June 1st was 60.975 million. In essence, China has decreased the total US hog inventory.
我们都知道农民只会在亏本的时候减栏。我们相信近几年来，中国出栏的12亿头商品猪平均每头亏损30美元(甚至可能更多)，行业亏损了360亿美金。这个数字很难深究，但就是这么算出来的。四月份减少了5700万头生猪存栏，这对我们来说意味着每年减少1亿头生猪出栏，即每周减少200万头。作为参考，美国6月1日的商品猪存栏为6097.5万头。大体上，中国减少的数量是美国生猪总存栏数。
Ramifications
后果
In April, China data indicates liquidation was still in full swing. We expect in May further sow herd liquidation.
今年4月，中国的数据表明减栏行动依然如火如荼。我们预计五月还有母猪群的进一步淘汰。
China has surplus corn in inventory – 57 million less market hogs will need less corn and soybean meal – what is the market effect? What would US corn usage be if the US hog industry essentially disappeared? That’s the market hog decrease in China. Corn is $10.50 a bushel in China.
中国有剩余玉米库存，减少的5700万头生猪将对玉米和豆粕的需求将会下降，这对市场会有什么影响?如果整个美国的养猪业基本消失，美国的玉米用量将是什么情景?这就是中国的商品猪减少的情况。中国玉米的价格是每蒲式耳10.50美元。
In mid-April, the market hog price in China was 86₵ USD liveweight per pound. Last week, 10 weeks later it was $1.17 US live weight a pound. An increase of 31₵ a pound or $75 per head on a 250 pound hog. Obviously, China’s hog supply is decreasing rapidly.
4月中旬，中国的商品猪价格是每磅活重86美分。10周后的上周，价格为每磅活重1.17美元。每磅上涨了31美分，即每头250磅的生猪上涨了75美元。显然，中国的生猪供应正在急剧减少。
The US market hog price live weight is 57₵ per pound – China $1.17 per pound. That’s about a 70₵ Our farmer arithmetic – that’s $175 US per head difference (250 lb.) – Canadian dollars $220 per head.
美国的商品猪价格为每磅活重57美分，中国为每磅1.17美元。我们简单算一下，差价约为70美分，每头差价达175美元(250磅)，即220加元。
We believe in capitalism. A $175 per head difference on a rising Chinese market gives Chinese pork importers great incentive to import pork. The China market is down 2 million head a week. We see no reason that at some point US – Canada packers won’t be able to move 100,000 equivalent extra carcasses to China. That is a market changer.
我们信奉资本主义。中国上涨的市场每头175美元的差价让中国的猪肉进口商有很大的积极性来进口猪肉。中国市场每周减少200万头。我们认为美国和加拿大的屠宰厂没有理由不找时机运输相当于10万头猪的胴体到中国。这将会影响市场。
Smithfield harvests 500,000 plus per week, they are Chinese owned. They will have market access, distribution channels and incentive to chase the $175 per head difference. They will lead the exports, but a rising tide lifts all boats.
史密斯菲尔德每周出栏50万头以上，他们是中国人拥有的公司。他们将获利市场准入、 分销渠道并有动机去寻求175美元的价差。他们将引领出口，但同时水涨船高。
The China factor is coming maybe not soon enough for many, but the numbers don’t lie. The boat is rising.
中国因素即将来临，也许对很多人不会那么快，但数字不会撒谎。船在上升。
|
